Our Outlook Remains Undeterred
Email – #64
Dear Reader,
Our picks picked up 4% in a couple of weeks; and the Dow seems unstoppable, despite some mild profit-taking.
While today we saw preliminary 3rd quarter GDP growth report in at 1.6%, slower than expected, the all-important inflation factor was extremely well behaved. The weaker performance came from housing, as expected.
Now, the debate [...]
China's "Mother of IPOs" Did Very Well
Email – #11
Dear Reader,
The IPO of ICBC (Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) was very well placed – and, more importantly, traded up some 17% in its first day in Hong Kong.
International players are trampling over each other to gain entry into the lucrative China banking market, and this contributed to the success of [...]
More Good News for Our Portfolio
Email – #63
Dear Reader,
I was in Detroit this week, presenting to the Oxford Club members. I enjoyed meeting with them and discussing the fate of the U.S. auto industry with some of them.
As we expected, energy made a move last week and the oil index (OIX) broke its resistance, despite unconvincing moves in oil prices. [...]
The Much-Awaited Entry Point Developed
Email – #10
Dear Reader,
It is a great day: I woke up with my largest personal position, a highly speculative Mongolian mining play, up 25% and rallying to 42% and still going. However, it is far too speculative to recommend.
The Dow is also looking up; and our energy, commodities and China plays remain intact.
After yesterday’s scare [...]
Let’s Jump on Energy for a Double-Digit Gain Before Year’s End
Email – #62
Dear Reader,
Pretty much all of the themes we discussed in the last week moved as we expected:
The Fed is NOT moving soon: it is telling us that the U.S. economy is strong, but not overheated, and inflationary pressures are slowly abating.
Housing bubble areas are clearly seeing speculator capitulation, leading to significant downward pricing [...]
We Pick Up More Energy in China While Waiting for "the Mother of Global IPOs"
Email – #9
Dear Reader,
I am at an Oxford Club editors’ gathering in Providence, Rhode Island, where we are having a very productive discussion on markets and picks worldwide.
I presented to the group my views on China and emphasized the Malaysia trade with its hugely bullish palm oil component. As we anticipated last week, Malaysia [...]
Getting Ready To Pull the Trigger… But Not Yet
Email – #60
Dear Reader,
At some point, probably closer to year-end and continuing into 2007, we are going to see an explosive rally in both U.S. and international equities. The U.S. housing bubble has deflated enough that inflation is surely trending back towards the comfort zone, and it’s a sign that U.S. can accelerate economic growth [...]
On Hold for the Right Parameters – Be Ready for Monday
Email – #8
Dear Reader,
We are on hold mode, looking to properly evaluate “the mother of all IPOs” (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China), which is hitting the market this month. Right now, it’s not advisable to take new positions.
As I wrote last week, I have two companies in the cross hairs, but I’m looking for [...]
Take Profits in MSCI Austria Fund
Email – #60
Dear Reader,
For all the good news I discussed last Friday, Germany shows some signs of stalling, Euro inflation is seen dipping and Spanish real estate is correcting.
Given these signs of some cooling off in Europe, the recent appreciation in our Austrian ETF (AMEX:EWO) and the proximity of the “October selling season” we [...]
